APWG Anticipated Demand Forecast

Last Updated: December 21, 2021


Since March 2017, the APWG has been publishing a quarterly rolling forecast for all ARVs (outside of non-essential pediatric formulations) based on anticipated procurement plans of member organizations. This forecast is valuable for suppliers and procurers alike. By sharing forward-looking plans on projected orders and scale-up plans across countries, suppliers have better information on which orders to scale-up capacity. This helps to ensure supply keeps up with demand. During previous transitions to new ARVs, suppliers only saw orders once they were placed, and not pipeline orders, so they may have experienced capacity issues as orders spiked in line with demand. The new process is designed to mitigate these challenges which impacts both suppliers and buyers. The forecast will also make it possible to see on a quarterly basis which products may be vulnerable to long lead times due to 1) not having a critical mass of orders or 2) capacity challenges. This visibility allows appropriate conversations and actions to be carried out in response. When introducing new ARVs, country programs are encouraged to liaise with the APWG members, such as CHAI or the Global Fund, to communicate scale-up plans and to contribute efforts towards promoting global supply security during new product transitions.


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