A framework to support new product introduction in national health systems
Forecasting & Quantification
Forecasting to ensure a continuous supply of essential medicines
The quantification process is a critical supply chain activity that translates national-level program policies into practical plans for procuring appropriate quantities of products. Forecasting and quantification also supports rollout plans and informs decision-making on the financing and procurement of commodities.
Forecasting & Quantification Checklist
Assemble a national team of experts in a technical working group (TWG) to run the quantification process, facilitated through a national quantification committee
Gather key inputs and ensure data is sufficient and of high-quality in order to build out a forecast
Develop a national forecast for the new product using the appropriate quantification methodology (e.g. CHAI Simple Tool, Quantimed, PipeLine)
Develop a supply plan based on the forecasting exercise
Review and adjust supply plans regularly, based on uptake and consumption trends (covered in detail in the Monitoring and Uptake chapter)
Forecasting & Quantification Tools and Resources
Quantification is an ongoing exercise conducted by a team of stakeholders and key personnel, including program managers, logistics officers, technical experts, procurement officers, policy makers, and service providers. This team is involved in the entire forecasting and quantification process, from data collection and analysis to presentation and validation of forecasts with key stakeholders.
CHAI Simple Tool
The CHAI Simple Tool is a morbidity-based forecasting tool that quantifies ARV needs over a three year period for an HIV treatment program. There is a separate tool for adult ARVs and pediatric ARVs, both of which are available in French and English. Outputs for this tool include demand for each formulation over next 36 months and total cost.
Advanced HIV Disease Commodity Calculator
The AHD Commodity Calculator is a quantification tool to assist programs with the annual quantification of key commodities for the diagnosis and treatment of patients with AHD and related co-morbidities.
Users will fill out the calculator in two phases: new patients expected to present to care and existing patients in care.
Pediatric Transition Tool
The CHAI Pediatric Transition Tool is designed to aid countries in the transition process to optimal pediatric products. The tool allows users to model scenarios for new product uptake and existing product phase-out at the formulation-level. Based on inputted rates of product adoption or phase-out, the tool will generate estimates of the number of patients on each regimen and formulation and produce recommended order quantities and their associated costs. Inputs required for the tool include pediatric weight band distribution, regimen and formulation splits disaggregated by weight band, current stock on hand, and product costs.
Please reach out to HIVToolkit@clintonhealthaccess.org if interested in accessing this tool.
Quantification of Health Commodities: A Guide to Forecasting and Supply Planning for Procurement (January 2017)
Developed by John Snow, Inc. (JSI) via the USAID DELIVER PROJECT, this guide assists technical advisors, program managers, warehouse managers, procurement officers, and service providers to:
Estimate the total commodity needs and costs for successful implementation of national health program strategies and goals
Identify the funding needs and gaps for procuring the required commodities
Plan procurements and shipment delivery schedules to ensure a sustained and effective supply of health commodities
The step-by-step approach to quantification presented in this guide is complemented by a number of product-specific companion pieces that include detailed instructions for forecasting consumption.
Forecasting & Quantification Software
Developed by Management Sciences for Health (MSH), Quantimed calculates forecast quantities and costs of medicines and medical supplies needed for health programs.
Developed by John Snow, Inc. (JSI), PipeLine is a desktop software tool that helps program managers plan optimal procurement and delivery schedules for health commodities, and monitors their orders throughout the supply chain. PipeLine helps track rate of use, total quantity available at all storage and health care facilities, total amount of losses (due to expiry and damage), and delivery timelines. With these data, PipeLine can be used to decide when to order new products, identify potential shortfalls, surpluses, and stock outs so remedial action can be taken and to forecast future needs.
Pediatric Quantification Resources
Early and accurate forecasting and quantification is critical for ensuring rapid and sustainable access to optimal pediatric ARVs while minimizing overstocks or stock-outs. Quantification of pediatric ARVs should focus on the full range of products needed to implement WHO recommended antiretroviral therapy regimens. The following resources and tools aim to support national programs in quantifying pediatric ARVs.