Through careful planning, low-and middle-income countries are able to schedule procurement of ARVs in a way that maintains proper levels of stock-on-hand and sufficiently meets the demand for HIV medicines. However, supply disruptions and errors in forecasting do occur and can lead to stock outs or stock surpluses. CHAI recommends a simpler approach: allow for the importation of drugs based on a fixed number of months of shelf life (e.g., 18 months) instead of using a percentage of shelf life threshold.
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