Quantification and Forecasting
Forecasting to ensure a continuous supply of essential medicines
The quantification process is a critical supply chain activity that translates national-level program policies into practical plans for procuring appropriate quantities of products to fulfill the rollout plan and to inform decision-making on the financing and procurement of commodities.
Quantification and Forecasting Checklist
Constitute a national team of experts in a technical working group (TWG) to run the quantification process, facilitated through a national quantification committee
Gather key inputs and ensure data is sufficient and of high-quality in order to build out a forecast
Develop a national forecast for the new product using the appropriate quantification methodology (e.g. CHAI Simple Tool, Quantimed, PipeLine)
Develop a supply plan based on the forecasting exercise
Review and adjust supply plan regularly, based on uptake and consumption trends (covered in detail in the Monitoring and Uptake chapter)
Use the links below to download the entire HIV New Product Introduction Guide or the Quantification & Forecasting chapter only
Quantification and Forecasting Tools and Resources
Quantification is an ongoing annual exercise which should be conducted by a team of stakeholders and key personnel, including program managers, logistics officers, technical experts, procurement officers, policy makers and service providers who are involved in the entire process, from data collection and analysis to presentation and validation of forecasts with key stakeholders. There are several software tools that can be used for quantification and forecasting including the CHAI Simple Tool, QuantiMed, and PipeLine.
Featured Tool: CHAI Simple Tool (Adults and Pediatrics)
The CHAI Simple Tool is a morbidity-based forecasting tool that quantifies ARV needs over a three year period for an HIV/AIDS treatment program. There is a separate tool for Adult ARVs and Pediatric ARVs. Access the English tool here. Access the French version here.
The following pieces of information are necessary to complete an forecast: 1) Current patients on ARV treatment, 2) Treatment targets, 3) Distribution over regimens, 4) Pediatric weightband distribution (For Pediatric Simple Tool), 5) Required security stock, 6) Drug prices, and 7) Central stock inventory.
Outputs for this tool include: 1) Demand for each formulation over next 36 months, taking into account current stock and timing and 2) The total cost.
The AHD Commodity Calculator is a qualification tool to calculate the commodities needed for AHD. It has been developed to assist programs with the annual quantification of key commodities for the diagnosis and treatment of patients with Advanced HIV Disease (AHD) and related co-morbidities. Access the tool here.
Users will fill out the calculator in two phases: 1) new patients expected to present to care, and 2) existing patients in care.
AHD Commodity Calculator
Pediatric Transition Tool
The CHAI Pediatric Transition Tool is designed to aid countries in the transition process to optimal pediatric products. The tool allows users to model scenarios for new product uptake and existing product phase-out at the formulation-level. Based on inputted rates of product adoption or phase-out, the tool will generate estimates of the number of patients on each regimen and formulation and produce recommended order quantities and their associated costs. Inputs required for the tool include pediatric weight band distribution, regimen and formulation splits disaggregated by weight band, current stock on hand, and product costs.
Please reach out to HIVToolkit@clintonhealthaccess.org if interested in accessing this tool.
Quantification of Health Commodities: A Guide to Forecasting and Supply Planning for Procurement (January 2017)
Developed by John Snow Inc. through USAID's DELIVER project, this guide for quantifying health commodities assists technical advisors, program managers, warehouse managers, procurement officers, and service providers in:
1. Estimating the total commodity needs and costs for successful implementation of national health program strategies and goals,
2. Identifying the funding needs and gaps for procuring the required commodities, and
3. Planning procurements and shipment delivery schedules to ensure a sustained and effective supply of health commodities.
The step-by-step approach to quantification presented in this guide is complemented by a number of product-specific companion pieces that include detailed instructions for forecasting consumption of antiretroviral drugs, contraceptives, community case management products, HIV test kits, antimalarial drugs and rapid diagnostic tests, underused RMNCH commodities, and laboratory supplies:
In addition to the CHAI Simple Tool, MOH and procurement partners can use Quantimed and PipeLine for quantification and forecasting. Specifically:
1. Quantimed: Developed by Management Sciences for Health (MSH), Quantimed calculates forecast quantities and costs of medicines and medical supplies needed for health programs.
2. PipeLine: Developed by John Snow International (JSI), PipeLine is a desktop software tool that helps program managers plan optimal procurement and delivery schedules for health commodities, and monitors their orders throughout the supply chain. PipeLine helps track rate of use, total quantity available at all storage and health care facilities, total amount of losses (due to expiry and damage) and delivery timelines. With these data, PipeLine can be used to decide when to order new products, identify potential shortfalls, surpluses, and stockouts so remedial action can be taken and to forecast future needs.